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Exit Poll 2023: BJP’s victory in Rajasthan, Congress’s victory in Chhattisgarh, Congress’s victory in Madhya Pradesh.

Exit Poll 2023: The people who voted in Rajasthan have indicated to restore the old tradition. On November 17, in Rajasthan, which has 200 seats, voting was held on 199 seats due to the death of a Congress candidate on one seat.

According to Bhaskar’s poll, BJP is expected to get 98 to 105 seats here. This time Congress will fall in double digits between 85 to 95 seats. Rebel and independent candidates may get ten to fifteen seats but will not be able to become kingmakers like in 2018 because BJP has started gaining absolute majority.

Congress leads in Madhya Pradesh, chances of hung assembly again

Madhya Pradesh, which has 230 seats, is the most interesting contest in electoral history this time. In the exit polls here, instead of victory or defeat, there is a close fight in which only ten seats can change the outcome. Congress may get 105-120 seats, while BJP may get 95-115 seats.

Kingmakers can be independents and rebels with 15 seats. This is almost identical to the results of 2018 when Congress formed the government with the support of independents and rebels.

Congress wins absolute majority in Chhattisgarh, BJP’s base increases

The voters of Chhattisgarh again show confidence in Bhupesh Baghel and Congress. According to Bhaskar’s poll, Congress will get absolute majority here with 45 to 55 seats. Congress is securing an absolute majority, but does not seem to be repeating its one-sided performance like 2018. In 2018, the Congress had won 68 out of 90 seats, leaving the BJP with just 15 seats.

Amit Jogi’s people, rebels from both the major parties, Congress and independents may get around ten seats, but they do not seem to have any role in forming the government.

Analysis of vote swing percentage in the three states

Rajasthan : BJP is estimated to get 4% more decisive votes if returned to the government. Whereas Congress’s votes are decreasing by 3 percent. There may also be a decline of one percent in the votes of independents and small parties.

Madhya Pradesh: The BJP, which came to power with Scindia and came back to power in the by-elections, is suffering a loss of about 5% votes. Congress’s vote share has increased by six percent. Due to this, the vote share of independents and small parties may fall by 1%.

Chhattisgarh: The vote share of Congress, which seems to be successful in saving power, may decrease by two percent, while the base of BJP may increase by three percent. Also, vote share of small parties and independent parties decreased by 1 percent.

3 major factors in Rajasthan:

1. Loss caused by division of Congress: Here the effect of division of Congress is clear in the minds of voters. Congress has suffered a lot because the dispute between Gehlot and Pilot has been going on continuously for four years. BJP is not winning alone in the results here; Instead, she is winning by dividing Congress.
2. Gehlot’s plans got delayed: Voters feel that CM Gehlot delayed in improving his deteriorating situation in the election year. His lucrative schemes made no impact on the votes. People wondered why such plans were not made four years ago. Voters thought these were lollipop schemes to garner votes.
3.BJP promoted Vasundhara on such an occasion: BJP made former Rajasthan CM Vasundhara very active a month before the elections. The BJP president did not make him the CM face, but did not reduce his series. Overall BJP seems to be benefiting from this.

There are three key factors in Madhya Pradesh: Signs from Madhya Pradesh suggest Congress may win 2018:

1. More angry with the government than Shivraj: BJP suffered loss due to 18 years of anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. In 2020, voters also expressed anger against manipulative government formation. Shivraj tried on his own, but before the general elections, the central leadership of BJP lost all his efforts and weakened him. This was also visible in the election campaign, when senior party leaders spent little time with Shivraj.

2.Kamalath has sole control over Congress: Voters feel that Kamalnath now means Congress in Madhya Pradesh. Kamalnath contested the entire 2023 elections alone. From ticket distribution to postponing the Bharat Alliance rally, the party accepted almost every decision it took. Despite being the winner in 2018, they were also sympathetic to the government’s losing cause.

3.Congress adopted the right strategy regarding Scindia: Congress made a lot of money in publicizing Scindia’s rebellion on Holi of March 2020 in Madhya Pradesh. From star campaigners to the state leadership, everyone sought sympathy from the voters, calling Scindia a traitor. Its impact is clear in Gwalior-Chambal.

Modi’s face vs Rahul and Priyanka

Prime Minister Modi was most active in these elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. He held more than four dozen rallies and road shows. In a way, Modi showed all the three states in his mind. Compared to Modi, Rahul held 18 more rallies and demonstrations, while Priyanka held 24 more rallies. That means both brother and sister crossed 42 big areas. Modi’s aggressive campaigning has improved the BJP’s position in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which is reflected in the exit poll trends. The campaigning of Rahul and Priyanka made the ground Congress leadership more excited.

October 15, 2023

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